|
S“If you
can look into the seeds of time, and say which grain will grow and which
will not, speak then unto me.” Shakespeare's words are just
as wise today, but this hasn't stopped people from trying to divine
the future.
The latest future-oriented computing issue goes by the overbroad moniker
Web services, and the companies behind it, including Microsoft with its
Microsoft.NET initiative and Sun with its Sun ONE initiative, would have
you believe that your computing future lies in their hands.
A Web service is a computer program that resides not on your computer
but on another computer that you connect to through the Internet. The
promise is that you'll be able to use any program no matter what
type of computer you're using, including a handheld PC or even one
you wear on your wrist, no matter where you are.
Experts predict that it will be two or three years before Web services
have any chance of replacing your word processor and other desktop applications.
My prediction is that if they force you to cede control of your computing
experience, they'll fail. The personal computing revolution is about
gaining control though customizability and personalization, not losing
it.
Still, the prospect of computing untethered without losing any functionality
is compelling.
SCI-FI MEETS REALITY
Other work is underway to create ever-faster computers through new chip
technology. The engines of tomorrow's PCs may be based not on silicon
dioxide but exotic new compounds such as perovskite oxide or even the
stuff of life itself, DNA. Faster computers may finally make speech recognition
as workable as typing and may lead to computers like HAL from the movie
2001: A Space Odyssey.
The future will be truly mind-boggling, according to the prognosticators.
In his book The Age of Spiritual Machines, Ray Kurzweil believes that
by the year 2030 common $1,000-personal computers will grow so greatly
in speed and capabilities that they will achieve the full capacity of
the human brain.
Kerzweil, a prominent inventor and business leader in the field of artificial
intelligence, makes other imagination-sparking predictions: By the end
of this century, we'll achieve virtual immortality by being able
to download our minds, memories and consciousness into robots. Ultimately,
he reasons, human and machine intelligence will merge and become indistinguishable,
growing exponentially until it will be able to control how the very universe
evolves.
It's easy to scoff at such notions as the stuff of science fiction.
Yet the past is littered with examples of the shortsightedness of others,
including those deeply involved with technology. Here are some of the
more notable examples of failures of the imagination:
• “640K ought to be enough for anybody.”
Microsoft founder and chairman Bill Gates, 1981, about computer memory.
• “Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.”
Popular Mechanics, 1949.
• “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”
Thomas Watson, president and CEO of IBM, 1943.
• “But what . . . is it good for?”
Engineer at IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip.
• “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their
home.”
Ken Olson, founder and chairman of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977.
• “This ‘telephone' has too many shortcomings to be
seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently
of no value to us.”
Western Union internal memo, 1876.
• “The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value.
Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?”
David Sarnoff's associates in response to his pushing for investment
in radio in the 1920s (Sarnoff founded NBC, the first radio network, and
later introduced television broadcasting to the United States.)
• “Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?”
H.M. Warner, co-founder and president of Warner Brothers, 1927.
• “We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the
way out.”
Decca Recording Co. rejecting The Beatles, 1962.
DON'T BET THE RANCH
On the other hand, you probably don't want to bet the ranch on anyone's
imaginings of a possible future. In a book I wrote called Straight Talk
About the Information Superhighway, I incorrectly predicted that by now
we would likely have a seamless national or international matrix for the
communication of interactive multimedia. In other words, according to
my crystal-ball reading, the worlds of broadband Internet access, cable
TV and videophones should have merged by now.
Later, however, I did predict the collapse of the dot-com economy.
One more quote, this one from Lao Tzu in the sixth century BC: “Those
who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't
have knowledge.”
Reid Goldsborough is a syndicated
columnist and author of the book Straight Talk About the Information
Superhighway. He can be reached at reidgold@netaxs.com
or http://members.home.net/reidgold.
|
|
| Visit D&WC On-line |
|
Draperies & Window Coverings' home page on the World
Wide Web can be found by connecting to: www.dwcdesignet.com.
Once there, visitors can follow hypertext links to all news and
feature articles beginning with the January 1996 issue as well as
product information, our searchable Directory & Buyer's Guide
and an industry calendar of events.
|
What's new
on DWCdesigNet.com . . . |
|
If you do business globally, then you’ll want to be a part of DWCinternational.com,
our online International Directory. With this International Who’s
Who of Suppliers on the Web you can search out thousands of suppliers
(domestic and international) who conduct business all over the world.
And with a click of a mouse get all the information you need to
contact them.
Also, take the time to visit site sponsors who make this international
Web site possible. Direct links to their home pages are provided.
And don’t forget to check back often. This site offers the latest
news and product developments going on all over the world.
Visit www.dwcinternational.com
|
|
